Psychological Pitfalls

Here are some additional psychological pitfalls to avoid. Be wary of
depending on others for your success. Most of the people you are
likely to trust are probably not effective traders. For instance:
brokers, gurus, advisors, friends. There are exceptions, but not
many. Depend on others only for clerical help or to support your
own decision-making process.
You may acquire trading methods or systems from others or from
books, but be sure to test them carefully yourself before trading.
Good systems that you can buy come with computer software that
allows comprehensive historical testing.
Don't blame others for your failures. This is an easy trap to fall into.
No matter what happens, you put yourself into the situation.
Therefore, you are responsible for the ultimate result. Until you
accept responsibility for everything, you will not be able to change
your incorrect behaviors.
Stay long-term oriented. Don't adjust your approach based solely on
short-term performance. Through luck, any horrible system can look
great, even for relatively long periods of time. Conversely, the best
systems have frequent losing periods. If you judge a system by

short-term performance, you are likely to reject the best systems
that exist.
Most traders have such an ego investment in their trading that they
cannot handle losses. Several losses in a row are devastating. This
causes them to evaluate trading methods and systems based on
very-short-term performance. Don't start trading a system based on
only a few trades, and don't lose confidence in one after only a few
losses. Evaluate performance based on many trades and multi-year
results.
Don't underestimate the psychological difficulty of successful
trading. Robert Rotella describes the trauma in The Elements of
Successful Trading: "Trading is one of the most stressful endeavors
imaginable. Taking losses day after day with a strategy that, just a
short while ago was working well, can be a terrible experience.
Trading performance can be consistently volatile with good and bad
times highly magnified. The market can batter your psyche and
gnaw at your soul. These bad experiences will never end as long as
you trade. The more successful you are as a trader, the more
money you will lose."
Keep trading in correct perspective and as part of a balanced life.
Trading is emotionally intensive no matter whether you are doing
well or going in the tank. It is easy to let the emotions of the moment
lead you into strategic and tactical blunders.
Don't become too elated during successful periods. One of the
biggest mistakes traders make is to increase their trading after an
especially successful period. This is the worst thing you can do
because good periods are invariably followed by awful periods. If
you increase your trading just before the awful periods, you will lose
money twice as fast as you made it.
Knowing how to increase trading in a growing account is perhaps
the most difficult problem for successful traders. Be cautious in
adding to your trading. The best times to add are after losses or
equity drawdowns.
Don't become too depressed during drawdowns. Trading is a lot like
golf. All golfers, regardless of their ability, have cycles of good play
and poor play. When a golfer is playing well, he assumes he has
found some secret in his swing and will never play poorly again.
When he is hitting the ball sideways, he despairs that he will never
come out of his slump.

Trading is much the same. When you are making money, you are
thinking about how wonderful trading is and how to expand your
trading to achieve immense wealth. When you are losing, you often
think about giving up trading completely. With a little practice, you
can control both emotional extremes. You'll probably never control
them completely, but at least don't let elation and despair cause you
to make unwarranted changes in your approach.
Other common themes of good traders are self-understanding,
balance and self-control. If you can master yourself, you can master
the futures markets.

Elements of a Successful Trading Plan--Manage Risk

The final cardinal principle of trading overlays all the rest. It is
Manage Risk. This is as crucial as the others because it is by
managing risk that you limit losses and preserve your capital.
The most important element of managing risk is keeping losses
small, which is already part of your trading plan. Never give in to
fear or hope when it comes to keeping losses small. Preventing
large individual losses is one of the easiest things a trader can do to
maximize his chance of long-term success.
Another element of risk is the market you trade. Some markets are
more volatile and more risky than others. Some markets are
comparatively tame. If you have a small account, don't trade big-
money, wild-swinging contracts like the S&P 500 stock index. Don't
be above using the smaller-sized Mid-America contracts to keep
risk in proportion to your capital. Don't feel you have to trade any

market that might make a move. Emphasize risk control over
achieving big profits.
The biggest risks to commodity traders come from surprise events
that move the markets too quickly to exit at their pre-determined
give-up point. While you can never eliminate these risks entirely,
you can guard against them by advance planning. Pay attention to
the risk of surprise events such as crop reports, freezes, floods,
currency interventions and wars. Most of the time there is some
manifestation of the potential. Don't overtrade in markets where
these kinds of events are possible.
Trade in correct proportion to your capital. Have realistic
expectations. Don't overtrade your account. One of the most
pernicious roadblocks to success is greed. Commodity trading is
attractive precisely because it is possible to make big money in a
short period of time. Paradoxically, the more you try to fulfill that
expectation, the less likely you are to achieve anything.
The pervasive hype that permeates the industry leads people to
believe that they can achieve spectacular returns if only they try
hard enough. However, risk is always commensurate with reward.
The bigger the return you pursue, the bigger the risk you must take.
Even assuming you are using a method that gives you a statistical
edge, which almost nobody is, you must still suffer through
agonizing equity drawdowns on your way to eventual success.
It is better to shoot for smaller returns to begin with until you get the
hang of staying with your system through the tough periods that
everyone encounters. Professional money managers are generally
satisfied with consistent annual returns of twenty percent. If talented
professionals should be satisfied with that, what should you be
satisfied with? Surprisingly, disciplined individuals can do better. It is
realistic for a good mechanical system diversified in the best
markets to expect annual returns in the twenty-five to fifty percent
range.
One last thing about creating a trading plan. Don't be enticed into
trading options as a less risky alternative to futures. While the dollar
risk of buying puts and calls may appear lower and more certain, the
probability of long-term success is remote.
Experienced professional traders, such as Larry Williams, agree:
"Options are a very difficult game because you have to do two
things: You have to beat the market and beat the clock. Perhaps
some sophisticated people can trade options. I've been trading

stocks and commodities successfully for over thirty years, but I don't
trade options because it's too tough."
The best way to trade options is to sell them to small speculators.
That's what options professionals do. However, selling options has
more risk and is more difficult than trading futures. Unless you are
well-capitalized and committed to a full-time career as a
professional options player, stick to futures.
Although the commodity markets appear complex from the outside,
making money trading is quite simple. You use an historically
proven plan that trades with the trend, cuts losses short and lets
profits run. You trade your system in a carefully-selected group of
markets. You start with sufficient capital and pay close attention to
managing risk. Richard Dennis made his $200 million following
precisely this kind of trading approach.

Elements of a Successful Trading Plan--Getting Started

The first element of any trading plan is the amount of capital you
intend to invest. This is up to you, but you should understand that
there is a direct relationship between the amount of capital you
commit and your probability of success. The more you invest, the
greater is the likelihood that you will make money.
What is the minimum advisable amount to start with? Most
professionals agree that it takes a minimum of $10,000. If you try to
trade with anything less, what happens to you will be luck. You won't
have the capital necessary to apply proper risk management
principles.
An important thing to keep in mind when deciding how much to
commit initially to commodity trading is that the amount you invest
must be "risk capital." Risk capital is defined as money you can
afford to lose without affecting your standard of living. It should also
be money that you feel comfortable risking. Think of your commodity
account as an investment in a business. Many businesses fail.
That's life. Make sure you won't be so afraid of losing money that it
will affect your ability to make correct trading decisions.
The next part of your trading plan involves how you will make your
actual buying and selling decisions. Under what conditions will you
enter trades? When will you exit your trades? What markets will you
trade?
There are four cardinal principles which should be part of every
trading strategy. They are: 1) Trade with the trend, 2) Cut losses
short, 3) Let profits run, and 4) Manage risk. These building blocks
are so basic and important that I have written a whole book about

them. You should make sure your strategy includes each of these
requirements for success.

Learning To Trade Correctly

One way to learn how to trade correctly is to find a successful trader
and have him or her teach you exactly how they do it. However,
even if you could find such a person and even if they would be
willing to spend the time with you, it would not necessarily make you
a successful trader. You might not have the capital necessary to
trade the way they do. You would definitely not have the years of
experience they had developing their successful approach. You
might not have the personality profile necessary to execute their
style of trading.
Another way to learn is by trial and error. This is the method of
choice for most people although they probably don't realize it. The
trouble with trial and error in futures trading is that you don't always
take a loss when you trade incorrectly and you don't always make a
profit when you trade correctly. Some of the best methods generate
losses more than half the time. You can take many losses in row
applying a very effective system. On the other hand, if you are
lucky, you can makes tons of money trading quite stupidly.
Psychologists call this random reinforcement, and it makes good
trading impossible to learn through trial and error.
The most obvious and practical way to learn how to trade correctly
is to read books. Find the best books by the most respected authors
and the best traders and learn from them. While this may work in
other areas of life, it is more problematic in commodity trading.
One of the few real secrets in commodity trading is that most of
what you read in books about how to trade does not work in the real
world. Even books by respected authors are full of trading methods
that lose money when put to the test. You may find this shocking,
but almost no commodity authors demonstrate the effectiveness of
the methods they advocate. The best you can hope for are some
well-chosen examples or a few cursory tests.
Learning to trade is a combination of being exposed to ideas plus
practical experience watching the markets on a day-to-day basis.
This is not something that can happen in only a few weeks. On the
other hand, you can become a great trader even with only average
intelligence. Professional trader and money manager Russell Sands
describes the makeup of a successful trader: "Intelligence alone
does not make a great trader. Success is equal parts of intellect,

applied psychology, practice, discipline, bankroll, self-understanding
and emotional control."
Furthermore, to be successful you don't have to invent some
complex approach that only a nuclear physicist could understand. In
fact, successful trading plans tend to be simple. They follow the
general principles of correct trading in a more or less unique way.

Separating the Winners and Losers

A very high percentage of those who try commodity trading
eventually lose money. The ratio of losers could be as high as
ninety-five percent. However, this does not necessarily mean that
your chance of failure is that high. If, before you begin, you identify
correctly the reasons most people lose, you can improve your odds
significantly.
There is a small percentage of full-time professionals and highly
skilled part-time traders who have learned how to trade correctly
and generate consistent profits year after year. It is not impossible
to determine what separates these people from the crowd.
Because trading well is not easy, you must approach the task very
seriously. This is not something to treat as a hobby. Perhaps, first
and foremost, this is what separates professionals from amateurs.
Professionals look at their trading as a business. There are
substantial profits to be made, and they will not just fall into your lap.

Another crucial difference between successful and unsuccessful
traders is that the successful ones have a plan and they follow it.
Considering the amount of money involved and the potential risks, it
is remarkable how few traders actually have any kind of plan for
their trading. They go from trade to trade applying various ideas
they have learned without any consistency and without any testing.
They make decisions based on hot tips, something they read,
today's news. They are acting from emotion rather than using a
proven methodology. While they may not want to admit it, they are
really gambling in the futures markets rather than trading
intelligently.
Trading by emotion in an unstructured way certainly adds fun and
entertainment to the enterprise. Taking positions on instinct is
exciting, especially when they work out . . . as they often do. But in
the end, this kind of trading will lose money.
Good trading is boring because you've thought out your strategy
and tactics in advance. You trade according to a carefully tested
system or method, not from what moves you emotionally that day.
Two psychological traits that separate winners from losers are
patience and discipline. It is not enough to have a carefully tested
trading plan. You must also be able to follow it religiously. This is
not as easy as you may think.
Every experienced trader knows how great the temptation is to stray
from the plan. There is always what seems to be a good reason.
The true professional can resist this temptation and stick to his plan.
He has the patience to wait for his method to signal a trade and not
take trades he may be emotionally attracted to that are outside his
plan. He has the discipline to follow his plan and take all the trades
that it signals even when there appear to be strong reasons to make
an exception.
This may sound easy, but when real money is on the line--your
money--nothing is more difficult. The kind of trading that really works
is emotionally demanding.
It is hard work to create a winning trading plan. It is hard
psychologically to follow the plan after you create it. This is why so
many people fail. Perhaps you have what it takes to be an
exception.

The Truth About the Commodity Markets

In order to be a successful trader, you must understand the true
realities of the markets. You must learn how the professionals make
money and what is possible. Most traders come into commodity
trading, lose a substantial portion of their capital and then leave
trading without ever having a correct perception of what good
trading is all about.
For many years college professors have argued that the markets
are both random and highly efficient. If this were true, it would be
impossible to gain an edge on other investors by having superior
knowledge or a superior approach.
Professional traders, who make their living trading rather than
studying the markets from afar, have always laughed at these ivory
tower theories. A good example is George Soros, who has made
billions of dollars from trading and is perhaps the greatest trader of
all time. Here is how he responds to these ivory tower academics:
"The [random walk] theory is manifestly false--I have disproved it by
consistently outperforming the averages over a period of twelve
years. Institutions may be well advised to invest in index funds
rather than making specific investment decisions, but the reason is
to be found in their substandard performance, not in the
impossibility of outperforming the averages."
Mathematicians have conclusively shown the financial markets to be
what are called non-linear, dynamic systems. Chaos theory is the
mathematics of analyzing such non-linear, dynamic systems. The
commodity markets are chaotic systems. Such systems can
produce random-looking results that are not truly random. Chaos
research has proved that the markets are not efficient, and they are
not forecastable. Commodity market price movement is highly
random with a small trend component.
Most beginning traders assume that the way to make money is to
learn how to predict where market prices are going next. As chaos
theory suggests, the truth is that the markets are not predictable
except in the most general way.

In his book, Methods of a Wall Street Master, famous trader Vic
Sperandeo, whose nickname is "Trader Vic," warns: "Many people
make the mistake of thinking that market behavior is truly
predictable. Nonsense. Trading in the markets is an odds game,
and the object is always keep the odds in your favor."
Luckily, as Trader Vic suggests, successful trading does not require
effective prediction mechanisms. Good trading involves following
trends in a time frame where you can be profitable.
The trend is your edge. If you follow trends with proper risk
management methods and good market selection, you will make
money in the long run. Good market selection refers to trading in
good trending markets generally rather than selecting a particular
situation likely to result in an immediate trend.
There are three related hurdles for traders. The first is finding a
trading method that actually has a statistical edge. Second is
following it with consistency. Third is consistently following the
method long enough for the edge to manifest itself on the bottom
line.
This statistical edge is what separates speculating from gambling. In
fact, effective trading is actually like the gambling casino rather than
the gambling customer. Professional trader Peter Brandt explains
successful trading in just this way: "A successful commodity trading
program must be based on the simple premise that no one really
knows what the markets are going to do. We can guess, but we
don't know. The best a commodity trader can hope for is an
approach which provides a slight edge. Like a gambling casino, the
trader must earn his profits by exploiting that edge over an extended
series of trades. But on any given trade, like an individual casino
bet, the edge is pretty meaningless."
Unsuccessful and frustrated commodity traders want to believe
there is an order to the markets. They think prices move in
systematic ways that are highly disguised. They hope they can
somehow acquire the "secret" to the price system that will give them
an advantage. They think successful trading will result from highly
effective methods of predicting future price direction. These deluded
souls have been falling for crackpot methods and systems since the
markets started trading.
Prolific futures trading author Jake Bernstein describes how these
desperate traders are victimized: "Futures trading is ultimately very
simple. Any attempt to make trading complex is a smokescreen. Yet

for self-serving reasons an army of greed-motivated promoters try to
make things complicated. Too many market professionals consider
it their mission in life to obfuscate. Why? Because in so doing they
give the appearance that their efforts are scholarly and important.
They create a need for more information, and then they fill it!"
Books on how to trade commodities are famous for showing a few
well-chosen examples where a described prediction method
previously worked. They never show what would have happened if
you had applied the method religiously for many years in numerous
markets. Those who have tested these methods have found that in
the long run almost all of them don't work. Be wary of any trading
method unless you see a detailed demonstration showing that it has
worked for at least five to ten years in a variety of different markets
using exactly the same rules.
The job of the person who wants to trade commodities rationally and
prudently is to ignore the promises of those promoting pie-in-the-sky
prediction mechanisms and concentrate on finding and
implementing a proven, integrated methodology that follows market
trends.

The Risks of Trading

Before becoming too excited about the substantial returns possible from commodity trading, it is a good idea to take a long, sober look at the risks. Reward and risk are always related. It is unrealistic to expect to be able to earn above-average investment returns without taking above-average risks as well.

Most people are naturally risk averse. They don't like to take big risks, especially financial risks. Perhaps you can relate to the point of view of humorist Will Rogers: "I am not as concerned about the return on my money as I am about the return of my money."

Commodity trading has the reputation of being a highly risky endeavor. It is true that a high percentage of traders eventually lose money. Many people have lost substantial sums. There is a famous old line about the best way to make a small fortune trading commodities . . . start with a big one.

However, commodity trading's reputation as a highly risky activity is somewhat undeserved. Think of yourself walking into a gambling casino in Las Vegas or Atlantic City. You decide to play roulette. The table has a $5 minimum bet and a $5,000 limit, which happens to be your total bankroll. If you place a $5,000 bet on red, you should not be surprised if you immediately lost your $5,000. On the other hand, if you made only $5 bets, you could play for a long time and probably not lose very much at all.

Commodity trading is the same in the sense that the individual is the one who decides how he wants to operate. He can make large bets or small ones. One can trade commodities carefully and risk as little as $100 or $200 on a trade. You could trade a long time this way and only lose a few thousand dollars. However, most people are not that patient. The unfortunates who lose big are those who can't control themselves. They take big risks in an attempt to get rich quick. Another way to lose big is blindly to turn your money over to others to trade such as brokers or money managers.

One of my favorite quotes about trading comes from trading psychology expert Mark Douglas. As he points out, most of us are not as willing to take financial risks as we think: "Most people like to think of themselves as risk takers, but what they really want is a guaranteed outcome with some momentary suspense to make them feel as if the outcome had been in doubt. The momentary suspense

adds the thrill factor necessary to keep our lives from getting too boring."

Anyone who is going to try speculation should be fully aware of and be comfortable with the risks involved. Managing the risks of trading is a very important part of any trader's success. Although the risks can be managed, they can never be eliminated. Remember that the high returns successful speculators can earn are available only because the speculator is being paid to take risk away from others.

When a commodity trader buys a futures contract, he will lose if the price declines. His risk is theoretically limited only by the price of the commodity going to zero. If he sells, he will lose if the price goes up. The risk is theoretically unlimited because there is no absolute ceiling on how high the price of the commodity can go.

In practice, however, the trader can offset his position when the trade is going against him to limit his loss. While a prudent trader always has a plan to limit his losses when trades don't work, it is not possible to guarantee a particular loss limit amount. As a practical matter, however, you can usually limit losses to within a few hundred dollars of an intended amount. Very often losses are within $100 of the amount you project. Only when very unusual things happen suddenly can losses balloon to thousands of dollars more than you expected.

A good example of this was what happened to many traders in stock index futures just before the Gulf War started in 1991. In The New Market Wizards by Jack Schwager, respected money manager Monroe Trout describes his ordeal: "January 9, 1991 was the day that Secretary of State James Baker met with the Iraqi ambassador in an effort to avert the Gulf War. At the time there was a reasonable degree of optimism going in to the meeting. Addressing the press after the meeting, Baker began his statement with the word 'Regrettably.' A wave of selling hit the stock and bond markets. I lost about $9,500,000, most of it in about ten seconds." Trout was holding 700 S&P futures contracts at the time.

One of the trading systems I was using during that period was a day trading system for the S&P. Although on most days that system didn't trade at all, it was unlucky enough to be in a long position that morning. I remember watching Baker's news conference and the S&P price action at the same time in my office. Even though I had a

$500 stop-loss in the market, my system lost $5,500 per contract on that day's trade because the market's liquidity evaporated so rapidly.

The S&P stock index is the most expensive market to trade, and those with accounts less than $25,000 should probably not be trading it at all. Therefore, this once in-a-decade event would have cost about twenty percent or less of a reasonably capitalized account.

Other kinds of surprise situations that can cause unpredicted losses are freezes, floods, droughts, government currency interventions and crop reports. With attention and foresight a trader can sidestep these risky situations. The best way to control unpredictable risks is to trade conservatively so larger-than-expected losses are still only a small percentage of the total account.

Another thing to understand about risk in trading is that you cannot avoid losses by careful planning or brilliant strategy. Numerous losses are part of the process. In The Elements of Successful Trading, Robert Rotella puts it this way: "Trading is a business of making and losing money. Any trade, no matter how well thought out, has a chance of becoming a loser. Many people think the best traders don't lose any money and have only winning trades. This is absolutely not true. The best traders lose a lot of money, but they eventually make even more over time."

There is no point trading commodities if you cannot handle the psychological discomfort of making losing trades. While people tend to take losses personally as a sign of failure, good traders shrug them off. The best trading plans result in many losses. Because of the amount of randomness in market price action, such losses are inevitable.

If I haven't scared you away so far, let's take a closer look at what successful commodity trading is all about.

Commodity Trading As An Investment Vehicle

There are many inherent advantages of commodity futures as an investment vehicle over other investment alternatives such as savings accounts, stocks, bonds, options, real estate and collectibles.

The primary attraction, of course, is the potential for large profits in a short period of time. The reason that futures trading can be so profitable isleverage.

For instance, if you had a $10,000 futures trading account, you could trade one S&P 500 stock index futures contract. If you were going to buy the equivalent amount of common stocks, you would currently need about $350,000, thirty-five times as much.

Let's say you decided that the stock market was going to go up. You could invest $350,000 and buy individual stocks equivalent to the S&P index, or you could buy one S&P futures contract. Buying a futures contract is the same as betting that the S&P index will go up.

If you had made your move on the first trading day of September, 1996 and held your position for two weeks, your common stock position would have been worth about $20,000 more than when you bought it, a gain of about six percent. Not bad for only two weeks. If you had taken the futures route, however, you would have made the same $20,000, which would have been a 200 percent gain on the $10,000 margin required in your futures trading account.

That is an actual example of the tremendous returns you can earn in a short period of time trading futures. Of course, you can lose money just as fast if you trade in the wrong direction. Suppose you had thought the stock market was about to go down and you had sold a futures contract instead of buying one. If you had valiantly held it for two weeks, you would have lost $20,000. That's a good example of why you must exit your trades quickly if they start to move against you.

Another advantage of futures trading is much lower relative commissions. Your commission on that $20,000 futures trading

profit would have been only about $30 to $50. Commissions on individual stocks are typically as much as one percent for both buying and selling. That could have been $7,000 to buy and sell a basket of stocks worth $350,000.

While profits can be large in commodity trading, it is not easy to make consistently correct decisions about what and when to buy and sell.

Commodity speculation offers an important advantage over such illiquid vehicles as real estate and collectibles. The balance in your account is always available. If you maintain sufficient margin, you can even spend your current profit on a trade without closing out the position. With stocks, bonds and real estate, you can't spend your gains until you actually sell the investment.

As you will see, commodity trading is not particularly complicated. Unlike the stock market where there are over ten thousand potential stocks and mutual funds, there are only about forty viable futures markets to trade. Those markets cover the gamut of market sectors, however, so you can diversify throughout all important segments of the world economy.

In futures trading, it is as easy to sell (also referred to as going short) as it is to buy (also referred to as going long). By choosing correctly, you can make money whether prices go up or down. Therefore, trading a diversified portfolio of futures markets offers the opportunity to profit from any potential economic scenario. Regardless of whether we have inflation or deflation, boom or depression, hurricanes, droughts, famines or freezes, there is always the potential for profit trading commodities.

There are even tax advantages to making your money from futures trading. Regardless of the actual holding period, commodity profits are automatically taxed as sixty percent long-term capital gains and forty percent short-term capital gains. The current maximum capital gains rate is thirty-three percent, somewhat less than the maximum rate for ordinary income. To the extent that capital gains tax rates are reduced in the future, commodity traders will benefit. If a distinction is re-established so that taxes on long-term gains are lower than on short-term gains, commodity traders will benefit.

Forex Robots - 6 X Facts That Cause Most to Lose Equity

Compare IVA Plans Use our free online debt calculator right now to compare IVA plans! www.trapped.co.uk

If you want to buy a forex robot, you should consider the facts enclosed because if you understand them you can avoid the losing majority of automated forex trading software and find the small minority that win...

Here are your forex robot facts - make sure you understand all of them before buying one.

Fact 1: Most Do Not Have Real Track Records

They claim to have made money but a quick look at the disclaimer shows they are simply paper simulations going backwards and you see the words in hindsight and simulated in the disclaimer. See this and pass it by, it probably won't make you any money for the next reason.

Fact 2: Most Robots are Curve Fitted

This means when the simulation is done, the rules are simply bent until they fit the data segment being tested shows a profit and this is pointless. Why?

Because the same price history will never repeat itself again exactly as before and you cant bend the rules going forward!

Fact 3: You Can't Win on 100 investment

The fact that anyone says you can is relying on you being very, very lucky, or knows nothing about forex trading.

The minimum you should consider is a $1,000 and preferably $3,000, to ride out any drawdown periods.

Fact 4: Any Trading System will have Long Losing Periods

Forget the statement you can make a regular income - you can't.

Even the best traders have losing periods that can last for many weeks or months. This doesn't mean you can't win long term you can but beware, you will face long periods of losses.

Fact 5: Most Vendors are NOT Successful forex traders

If they were, they wouldn't be selling you a forex robot for $100 and claiming it makes $100,000, they would be to busy making money to bother you.

Ever wonder why everyone in the world isn't trading?

Well the answer is - only the naïve or greedy trader buys a forex robot thinking he can get rich for $100.00 or so.

Fact 6: The Minority that Win

Have real track records and cost a few thousand dollars but they are a great investment and can make the investment in them back many times over but be aware, even the best ones have periods of losses ( normally 20 - 50%) and these can last for weeks, so you need discipline to trade them.

You can win with a forex robot but it's a fact that most sold will simply destroy your equity and do it quickly. So cut through the hype, be realistic and go for one which has at least been proven in the real world of trading and is not just made up in hindsight!

Forex Trading Software - Use The Best For Successful Trades by JON ARNOLD

You have heard about the vast sums of money that can be made with smart forex trades, but what forex trading software is best and gives you the greatest advantage? If you have been searching for some forex trading software for any amount of time, you probably already realize that there are many of them out there, and it seems like the claims of one are only superseded by the claims of the next one.

To determine which one is best, you first need to get some understanding of what the forex market is, since any software that devotes its time to teaching you what forex actually is will probably have lesser capabilities in other areas, like doing a very thorough analysis of the vast amounts of data that needs to be considered when making a trade decision.

Forex is also known as foreign exchange or foreign currency exchange. This is the task of exchanging one country's currency for another country's currency and then re-selling it again, perhaps in the same country or another country to make a profit based on the constantly changing currency exchange rates. The total forex market is probably the largest market on the planet, doing more than $3.8 trillion (USD) a day when considering it from a worldwide perspective.

It is difficult to determine which forex trading software is best so one of the first things you need to do is determine what you need the software to do for you. And in order to do that, you need to gain some understanding of the forex market so that you can determine which aspects of forex trading can be done by software, and which parts really should be left to you for the final trading decisions.

One of the problems of just going to a search engine like Google and entering search times for the software package and the word "review" is that those can be toyed with. The author of a software package might have a dozen blogs or web pages setup that provide a favorable review of his software, but they were all created by him, so the person looking for a review of that forex trading software would find a high number of favorable reviews.

Look for what kind of support the software offers. Do they have a phone number to call? Probably not, since forex trading happens 24x7 worldwide, and having a support center open 24x7 is an expensive proposition. Do they have an online forum where members can post questions and get answers from either the author or other members? Can you email questions and get answers in a reasonable amount of time? There are very few things worse than owning a piece of software and being stuck with something you don't know how to do, knowing that while you are spinning your wheels, successful forex trades are going on all around you.

Look for a money back guarantee. If the author is willing to back up his clams with this kind of guarantee, then you should feel a lot better about giving that forex trading software a try and putting it through its paces. One of the best forex trading software programs is shown at our web site.

Developing A Successful Forex Market Strategy

Forex is probably the largest market on the planet and it is always changing, worldwide, 24x7. This aspect is one of the things that makes forex so exciting. With that kind of activity, it is not always accurately predictable, but you need to understand the market so that you can jump on profitable trades and minimize your losses in losing trades, which is all based on the strategy that you utilize.

Nobody in their right mind would just jump into the forex market blindly. That would be even worse than attempting to pilot a 747 jet if you have never had flying lessons. Jumping in without a good understanding of the forex market is reckless at best, and you would save yourself a lot of time by simply lighting a match under your money. the ins and outs of forex currency trading, and the various factors that go into making an informed and intelligent trade decision.



You must understand that forex trading is a gamble, and like the advice offered to those who enter a typical Vegas hotel, never play with money you cannot afford to lose. There are no guarantees in the forex market, which means that you need to utilize all the tools at your disposal to ensure you have considered all factors that will impact a currency's value, both now and in the future. The forex strategy that you use needs to allow for the possibility that you will make losing trades. Every forex trader on the planet makes an occasional losing trade, this is part and parcel of this market, but your strategy needs to protect your assets in that way to minimize your losses and maximize your wins.


Many forex traders simply follow other forex traders. While this could be a strategy, can you see how and why it is not a good one? Other traders are not likely to share with you what they intend to do until after they have done it, and with the rapidly changing market, it is unlikely you could get in at the same forex rate that they did, which will minimize your income. The much bigger money is in doing the analysis and making your own trades, not by following others who have no incentive to tell you what they are going to do anyway.

Take the time to learn the forex market, since the financial rewards are huge, but make sure you also protect yourself by allowing for a potential loss. For more insights and additional information about a Forex Market Strategy as well as reviewing one of the best forex software systems available anywhere, please visit our web site at http://www.forexcurrencysystems.com


One component of any good forex trading strategy is to avoid putting all of your investments in one currency. Do you remember the old saying about not putting all your eggs in one basket? This is the same thing and there is a lot of wisdom there. If you spread out your investment amongst many different currencies, it is far less likely that your investment would be wiped out in a single unsuccessful transaction.

There are many moving parts involved with successful forex trading, as well as a virtual mountain of data that needs to be analyzed, interpreted, and forecast as to how that will affect a particular currency that you may want to trade. The most successful traders use a forex trading software package that can help them do the required analysis. Such software would do the lower level work of doing the intensive and gut-wrenching analysis. Based on the number of elements that should be considered that can affect a currency's value, trying to do work manually yourself is going to almost definitely be a losing proposition.

Forex Trading Advice -

If you want forex trading advice and want to win at forex trading, you can get all the advice you need to build a forex trading strategy for big profits for free and here we will show you how to find it...

Most of the so called experts online are anything but and in most cases there not even traders. They sell dubious forex robots and sure fire predictive systems with paper simulations and look for naïve or greedy traders to buy them and plenty of traders do.

In forex trading you need to learn and understand what you do, so you can trade with confidence and you can do that for free.

Before we look at good advice, let's look at avoiding the bad and here are some prime examples.

Forex trading forums

If you want to find a bunch of losers, there are plenty in forex forums.

The guys here who spout forex advice, are normally traders who can't make money, so it makes them feel better to give you their wisdom or vendors, looking for people to buy their product.

I don't know any successful traders who hang around forums, so avoid them.

Broker Advice

Lots of brokers give research and advice but if brokers were good traders they wouldn't be brokers! Most are market makers and make money when you lose, so it is a conflict of interest too.

Forex News

CNBC, CNN etc great reporting but it won't help you trade and all the experts you see tell good stories but that's all they are stories and normally news reflects the herd and keep in mind, the herd losses.

Never trade news or expert opinion from it. If it were that easy to make money a lot more people would be successful!

Good Advice and Where to Find it

Let's stress some basics First.

The best way to win at forex trading is to use forex charts and technical analysis and lock into forex trends. There is free information online that gives you everything you need to know about technical analysis and lots of free chart services as well.

These are the keywords you should really understand and study

Support and Resistance.

You need to of course know everything about this.

Breakout Methodology

If there is one method you should start with is trading breakouts so look them up.

It's a fact that if you trade breakouts, you will be in on every major move as most big trends start from new market highs or lows.

Momentum Oscillators

If you want to trade breakouts you need to confirm them and a through understanding of momentum indicators is needed, as they can confirm the move.

If you look up the above you will have the basics of a simple system you can use to trade breakouts and have a sound simple forex trading strategy.

The Key to Trading Success

You should then look up and study everything you can on money management, volatility and standard deviation and the important trait of trading discipline.

You can get it all for free you can get the knowledge and confidence you need to trade your system.

Does that sound too simple?

Well forex trading is based around a simple strategy, you understand and can have confidence in and can execute with discipline.

Forex Trading -These Ordinary People Made Millions After 2 Weeks Training How? by KELLY PRICE

In one of the most famous trading experiments of all time a group of people who had just 2 weeks training went on to make hundreds of millions of dollars. What did they do to achieve such stunning success?

This story motivated me to trade and I hope it does the same for you and concerned a bet. The bet was between Richard Dennis and his partner and the bet was based on:

Could traders be made or were they born.

Dennis thought they were made and set out to prove his point.

He got a group of ordinary people together including - an actor, a security guard, a boy just out of school and a female auditor, to name just a few and they only had one thing in common:

They knew nothing about trading but Dennis was about to change that in spectacular fashion.

Dennis set about his task and taught them to trade in a couple of weeks and the rest is history. They became legends and made hundreds of millions of dollars, Dennis had proved his point.

So why did this group do so well while it's common knowledge, that 95% of traders burn their equity quickly?

Well what you can learn from the experiment is:

Anyone can learn to trade - but success is determined as much by mindset as by method.

Let's look at this in more detail.

Dennis taught them a simple trading system (basically a long term breakout method) and combined it with strict money management.

Dennis knew that most traders fail due to lack of discipline - they simply cannot trade through drawdown periods and take losses and keep on track, until they hit a home run.

So he didn't just tell them to follow the system - but to know everything about it including, how and why it worked and how it could lead them to success.

In short he taught them the method and made them understand that they were responsible for their success.

Compare this to most traders today, who think they can get rich with no effort.

Most traders today, want to followers but this is doomed to failure, because success comes from within.

Trading requires discipline above all else and you need iron discipline to win.

This is hard for even veteran traders at times when the market continues to hand you losses and you look stupid. Don't believe the rubbish you read on the net about consistent income - you will take losses for weeks or months at a time and you need to stay on track, until you hit a home run.

It's a motivating story and this group called "the turtles" showed that anyone can achieve success, with the right mindset and education. Sure you might not make as much money as them however the opportunity is there and even if you don't you can enjoy currency trading success and make a great income for the effort you put in.

Read more of their story and I hope it gives you the confidence to trade, as it did for me 25 years ago and got me started in the world's most exciting investment!

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International Currency Trading - 95% OF Traders Lose Could You Win? by KELLY PRICE

International Currency Trading is an exciting investment but is not for everyone and you should think carefully before trading keep in mind 95% of traders lose. So consider the points below and they will give you an insight on what it takes to win...

Most traders' think they can shoot from the hip and win trade the news or trade their gut felling but they lose and so do the sheep who follow gurus, mentors or forex robots and don't know what there doing.

These traders don't get the point of what currency trading online is all about.

In international currency trading the first thing to understand is:

You need to understand what you are doing and that means educating yourself on how and why markets move, so you have the confidence and discipline, to trade your system and execute your trading signals through losing periods ( all traders have them) until you hit a home run and hit the big profits.

If you don't have the discipline to follow your system, you don't have one! Many traders could win but throw in the towel and quit to early, when if they would have stayed on course and had the courage of their conviction, they would have been rewarded.

Most traders simply cannot accept the following points:

- Success depends on you and you cant blame anyone else

- You don't get rewarded for effort you get rewarded for results only

- Trying to be clever wont help you, forex success is based on simplicity

- The market price is always right and only you can be wrong, so your ego is the enemy!

- You need to make and live by your own rules to survive

- You need to isolate Yourself from majority opinion and rely on yourself

A World of Opportunity

For the trader prepared to accept responsibility however, you can see that international currency trading, offers some fantastic advantages to build wealth.

- You don't need to work hard just work smart

- You can use a simple forex trading system and win

- Your not after perfection just a profit

- You like relying on yourself and know only you can give yourself success

- Anyone can learn to win - trading is a learned skill

- International currency trading gives you the vehicle for big gains.

It's NOT Easy but You Can Win

The main point we are trying to stress in this article on international currency trading is, while it is not easy to win, currency trading success is within reach of anyone, if they have the right mindset and can apply themselves. You can develop a forex trading strategy for success in a few weeks and then be making big consistent profits in around 30 minutes a day and that's a fact.

Understanding How A Forex Rate Works

so then you would swap back again and realize a handsome profit because now the British pound is worth more than you paid to acquire it.

To be successful with your forex trades, you will be looking at forex rates constantly during the day. One of your tasks is to thoroughly examine the various trends in the countries and predict how these factors will impact the value of the country's currency. For example, if all the factors you are watching, including the rate, seem to indicate that the British pound is beginning to increase in value compared to the Euro, you might want to consider swapping your Euros for British pounds. But it does not stop there, because as you continue to watch the rates, even on the same day, it may show that the British pound has become strong again, The forex rate is the most critical thing to be considered for a forex trader because he needs to determine how that rate will change amongst the various world currencies. If you have the desire and motivation to be involved with forex trading, learning about forex rates is critical to your success.

Many of the most successful traders in the forex market use some type of forex software package to help them with all this analysis. The software will not make the trades for you automatically without you having to indicate that you do want to do a trade, but simply based on the sheer volume of data that needs to be evaluated, there is some very good forex trade software out there. Our web site outlines one of the best forex software packages available anywhere that has an outstanding track record.

The factors that influence the forex rates are just about any social, economic, or political event that is occurring in that country at a given time. Is this a lot of data to consider? It absolutely is, but at the same time, it is imperative that as many of these variables be taken into account so you can make the best trade decisions possible.

Forex Trading System - A Requirement For The Serious Forex Trader

If you're new to the world of Forex trading, you're going to need a Forex trading system to help you in your endeavors. Number one, you're going to need to sign up with a Forex broker so that you can engage in trades, and number two, you're going to need to develop your own Forex trading system so that you know what you're doing and know your way around Forex trading. This will help you be successful as a Forex trader.

Learning your way around Forex trading is challenging but rewarding. It's going to require a learning curve, so you're going to need to learn some things about Forex trading before you start to trade with your own money. If done properly, though, you can become successful as a Forex trader.

First, understand that Forex trading is not like trading in the stock market. With Forex trading, you trade in currencies. Your particular Forex trading system is going to have to be developed on the idea that one currency in a particular currency pair (both of which you pick) is going to do better than the other. For this, you need to learn about two different types of analysis.

The first, fundamental analysis, studies the political, social and economic forces in those currencies' countries. If one country, for example, is particularly stable in its politics, government, economy or social structure, its currency is likely to do better than the currency of a country that is unstable in those same areas.

Technical analysis, on the other hand, has you studying and analyzing a particular currency's patterns and trends. This means that you'll need to learn to read charts and make predictions based upon what those charts say. As one example, if a particular currency is doing very well and has been rising steadily, it's probably going to continue to do so for at least the time being. You're still going to have to keep an eye out for any changes that occur and make adjustments based on those changes, of course.

Your Forex trading system is also going to teach you how to learn how to execute the different types of orders so that you can buy, hold or sell trades so as to maximize your success and profits. One note about learning your way around the Forex market and your own system is that you should sign up for a demo account with the particular Forex broker you choose. Demo accounts allow you to "trade" in practice mode just as though you are executing real trades, but without spending any money. In this way, you're going to learn your way around Forex trading without having to risk any money of your own until you're truly ready.

Demo or practice trades are important for another reason, and that is that they teach you how to lose money on a trade as well. This is important, because you're going to have to learn to lose money and to win money properly in order to succeed. What do I mean by that? I mean that you can't let losing a trade devastate you; every single Forex trader, including those who are very successful, will lose on a trade every now and again. In addition, if you're winning on a trade, you're going to have to know when to get out if your data says you should, even if the trade itself is still succeeding. This means that you have to have the psychological makeup and fortitude to manage your trades with detachment, and without becoming emotionally involved.

Finally, when you do begin to trade, trade small. This lets you learn how to trade with real money as your next step, but without risking a lot until you're truly experienced. Most Forex brokers will let you trade with as little as $10. In the beginning, yes, your gains are going to be small, but so will your losses.

As you start to get more familiar with Forex trading, one of the things you will undoubtedly discover is that the more familiar you are with the various conditions and factors in each country whose currency you are trading, the more accurate you can be in predicting which way their currency will move. This involves a detailed analysis of virtual truckloads of data. You may want to consider allowing technology to help you with this part of it, with one big recommendation being the software shown at our web site, which is one of the most popular and one of the most successful package available anywhere.

Forex Currency Trading

The forex currency trading is the foreign exchange or currency exchange market. The values of different currencies rise and fall in relationship to other countries monetary units. That change is what Forex traders hope to monopolize and capitalize on. There is normal daily fluctuation in exchange rates, even multiple times daily. If you’ve ever traveled outside the country, for example, even to Canada or Mexico, you notice that the currency exchange varies from morning to afternoon and daily. This fluctuation is what forex currency traders try to capture.

In the forex trade, there are two different types of currency used. Even though you may be American, the money in your account may be yen and you want to exchange it for Euros. You don’t have to stay within your own country, you just need a second form of monetary exchange. Quotes show in pairs also. EUR/USD shows two currencies. The first is the base currency with the second the counter currency. If you choose a buy for the combination, you trade USD (United States dollars) for Euros. You believe the Euro is growing faster than the dollar, or the dollar is dropping in relationship to the Euro.

Forex currency trading used to be isolated to the very rich, governments, multinational corporations and central banks. Today more and more individuals and private investors trade currency. The average daily trade of US currency is over 4 trillion dollars and growing daily.

Although forex currency trading is different in many ways from stock trading, they do have some of the same characteristics. For instance, the way brokers are paid is similar to the NASDAQ. The spread is used. The spread is a price differential on both buy and sell transactions.

Unlike exchanges on the stock exchange, both sides of the position must close before the currency is available to make another trade. There is no actual delivery like the stock exchange but conversion takes place through banks and specific exchange organizations.

You also can buy on margin, just like in the stock market. The difference is the amount that the account needs to hold. Margin purchases in the stock market require 50 per cent of the account balance. Instead, it more closely resembles the margin of the commodities, which is between 1-10 percent. The margin in a forex account is 1 per cent. This is the actual amount that you deposit to make trades. If you put $1,000 into the account, you’d have $100,000 worth of buying power in the account.

There are the normal charting tools to use for forex currency trading. The biggest difference is that you need to know about both types of currencies, as opposed to just the stock of one company. Daily events and news from the different countries change the values of the currency. This is similar what happens to stock, except, you’re not talking about just one company, where, unless some outrageous scandal happens or earnings announcements occur, there’s seldom news. Every day countries have news stories that have the potential to raise or reduce the value of the currency.

A Mint Via The Forex Forecast

There are various techniques to make a forex forecast. If you’re involved in forex trading, you already understand that it is the exchange of two different types of currency. You sell one to buy the other. Each trade is really two different trades. The successful forex trader takes advantage of the exchange rates and tries to find trends in the money market that allows them to monopolize and maximize their return.

If your account is in USD (United State dollars) and you believe the Euro is going to go up in relationship to the dollar, you want to sell the dollar and buy the Euro. The way you write the exchange is EUR/USD buy. The Euro is the base and the USD is the counter currency. If your instructions were buy, you’d buy the Euro and sell the USD. The instructions are always describing the base currency with the counter having the opposite type of exchange. If you ordered a sell then you’d sell the Euro and buy USD.

Forex forecast consists of two different methods. You can use the technical analysis or fundamental analysis. Fundamental analysis forecast with events and how they should affect the market. The technical forex forecast puts its primary focus on what already occurred within the market. It uses chart to help predict what happens next according to the price movement.

Technical analysis takes the price, the volume and sometimes also interest to create charts. It uses the movement of the past to predict the movement in the future. Much like stock charting, it takes the data to create instruments to use as tools and often follows and adjusts the charts in real time. Even though you may know that the market should drop because the country, for example, had a massive hurricane, if the movement of the currency doesn’t indicate that movement, then all the fundamental information in the world doesn’t count.

Technical analysis also looks at the trends or patterns of the currency and anticipates the past will predict the future. Many different patterns are repetitive and forex forecasting uses the charts to find that information. The trends and patterns repeat often with little deviations. This makes the tracking easier.

Technical analysis uses five basic categories that involve the price. They use indicators, the number theory, waves, gaps (between the high and low) and trends (also known as the moving average.) Many who trade stock will find these terms quite familiar. Fundamental analysis forecasts the future movement of the currency price from political, economic, social, and even seasonal factors. The fundamental analysis for a forex forecast correlates to looking at a company’s financials and news to forecast stock movement. Understanding the country’s supply and demand, seasonal cycles, weather and governmental policies, both monetary and otherwise, help predict where the price should land.

Most successful traders use a combination of both forms of forex forecast to make their decisions to buy and sell the various currencies. Knowing the countries and their historic patterns of value in relationship to events can only tell so much, watching the technical patterns helps to fill in the gaps and adjust for attitude changes or inaccurate information. For more insights and additional information about how a Forex Forecast as well as a review of one of the foremost forex software programs available anywhere for the serious forex trader, please visit our web site at http://www.forexcurrencysystems.com

Forex Charts – Simple Tips for Bigger Fx Profits

This article is all about using technical analysis the RIGHT way - and using Forex charts to make big consistent profits.

Here we are going to look at some proven ways of analyzing forex charts and some great indicators.

You can then use them to generate trading signals, to zero in on the low risk high profit opportunities all traders want.

1. Trend Lines

You need to start and learn to draw basic trend lines to spot opportunities, it may sound old fashioned but it’s the best way to spot trends.

2. Support and Resistance

The basis of most of the top trading systems.

Support and resistance is simply defined as levels where prices move to and then reverse.

In a rising market prices rise to resistance levels and fall while the exact opposite occurs in a bear market.

When prices break above or below significant support or resistance, a good trending move could be on the way - especially if the resistance or support is valid.

So how do you know if support or resistance is valid?

Look for lots tests - and look for how many different time periods tests have occurred in - by looking back at your Forex charts and also the distance in time between them.

3. Breakouts

If prices break through important support or resistance, then the odds are that the supply and demand position is changing and a new trend will develop.
Trading with breakouts, and trading in the direction of the break is profitable but most traders can’t do it.

Why?

Because most traders like to buy low and sell high.

They wait for a pullback to buy at a better price - and it doesn’t come and the move is missed.

Most major currency trends start from new market highs - NOT market lows.

To catch the trend you need to go with the break and forget about buying low, however not every breakout will work but how do you spot the ones that do?

You need to watch price changes in terms of momentum and volatility.

Volatility Changes

Volatility is a term used to describe the magnitude, or size, of day-to-day price fluctuations - regardless of their direction.

Generally, changes in volatility give clues to changes in price. A breakout that is accompanied by high volatility, is the ideal set up.

An indicator you should look at to determine volatility is the Bollinger band.
Bollinger bands can also help you identify support, resistance and targets for the move and are an essential indicator.

Price Momentum

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over given time-periods. Momentum indicators can therefore determine the strength or weakness of a trend by looking at shifts in price momentum.

If price momentum increases on a break, then the odds are that the break will continue and a new trend will develop.

There are two good indicators for looking at changes in momentum:

The Stochastic and Relative Strength Index (RSI).

There is not enough room here to go into how they work simply see our other articles or look them up on the net, both give a highly visual picture of changes in price momentum and are easy to use.

Finally

If you can draw trend lines, spot breakouts and use volatility and momentum indicators that we have outlined above you could soon be on your way to making big consistent profits with your forex charts.