The Trading Process

Here are some typical steps in the process of making a commodity
trade including the trader's decision-making process and the
procedures involved in actually placing the trade.
In order to make decisions about when to trade commodity futures,
you must have a source of price data. Many daily newspapers carry
some commodity prices in their financial sections. The Wall Street
Journal has comprehensive commodity price listings. Investor's
Business Daily has both price tables and numerous price charts
All experienced commodity traders prefer to look at price activity on
a chart rather than trying to interpret tables of numbers. In financial
analysis, charts are indispensable for quickly grasping the essence
of historical and recent price action.
The typical commodity chart depicts daily price action as a thin
vertical bar which indicates the day's high and low by the top and
bottom of the bar. The opening and closing prices are shown as tiny
dots attached to the left and right side of the bar. A typical daily
price chart can show up to six months of price action this way.
It is easy to change the bar's time frame from days to weeks or
months and thus show from two to twenty years of historical price
action in the same format. For short-term trading you can change
the bar's time frame to hours or even minutes.
Looking at such bar charts enables a trader to see the recent trend
of prices--whether up, down or sideways--in whatever time frame he
chooses. Following the current trend of prices is a cornerstone of
successful trading.
There are a number of ways to obtain the price charts a trader
needs to analyze the markets. You can make your own using graph
paper. This sounds rather primitive, but some experts recommend it
as a good way to put yourself in close touch with price activity and
monitor risk.

Another source of charts is the printed chart service. There are
about half a dozen of these. They typically mail a booklet of
numerous charts covering all the tradeable markets after the
markets close on Friday. There is space on the charts to update
them daily during the following week until next chart book arrives.
These printed chart books normally have a number of indicators
plotted along with the price action and contain a wealth of additional
information.
For computer owners there are many software programs that create
fancy charts on the computer screen. You can input the price data
manually or, via telephone modem, download comprehensive data
after the markets close for the day. Those with larger budgets can
install a small satellite dish and watch price changes in all the
markets nearly instantaneously as they occur. The software creates
charts dynamically on the computer screen as each trade takes
place on the exchanges. You can put many different charts on the
screen and thus watch numerous markets all around the world in
real time. The cost can range from a few hundred to $1,000 a month
depending on the software and the number of exchanges you
subscribe to.
It is easy to believe that computers can make a big difference in
trading success. Vendors of expensive software will tell you that
since other traders, who are your competition, have expensive
computer setups, you need one too. This isn't really true.
Those who can't trade profitably without a computer probably won't
be helped too much by using a computer. It may actually be
detrimental by causing an increase in trading frequency. While a
computer will not make a bad trader into good one, they are fun to
use, and they do make a trader's life easier.
There are two primary analytic methods for deciding when to take a
futures position: fundamental analysis and technical analysis.
Fundamental analysis involves using economic data relating to
supply and demand to forecast likely future price action. Technical
analysis involves analyzing past price action of the market itself to
forecast the likely future price action.
While there are differences of opinion about the relative merits of
the two approaches, almost all successful traders emphasize
technical analysis. There are a number of reasons for this. First and
foremost is the difficulty of obtaining accurate fundamental data.
While various governments and private companies publish statistics
concerning crop sizes and demand levels, these numbers are gross

estimates at best. With the current global marketplace, even if you
could obtain accurate current information, it would still be impossible
to predict future supply and demand with enough accuracy to make
commodity trading decisions.
Technical analysts argue that since the most knowledgeable
commercial participants are actively trading in the markets, the
current price trend is the most accurate assessment of future supply
and demand. If someone is correct that for fundamental reasons,
prices will likely move up strongly in the future, the commercial
participants who have the greatest knowledge and influence on the
markets should certainly be moving the price upward right now. If
price instead is moving down, a lot of very knowledgeable people
must think price in the future will likely be down, not up.
For this reason, almost all successful speculators learn to follow
price action and not try futilely to predict turning points in advance.
They seek to trade in tune with the large participants who move the
markets.
In his classic book, Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets,
famous analyst John Murphy summarizes the rationale for technical
analysis: "The technician believes that anything that can possibly
affect the market price of a commodity futures contract--
fundamental, political, psychological or otherwise--is actually
reflected in the price of that commodity. It follows, therefore, that a
study of price action is all that is required. By studying price charts
and supporting technical indicators, the technician lets the market
tell him which way it is most likely to go. The chartist knows there
are reasons why markets go up and down. He just doesn't believe
that knowing what those reasons are is necessary."